ECCE Seminar - Changing philosophies of model calibration in projecting hydrological futures

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Changing philosophies of model calibration in projecting hydrological futures

There is a long history of ideas about how to evaluate and test hydrological models as hypotheses about how catchments function. These will be presented as 9 different philosophies of model evaluation, focusing on the period of modelling on digital computers since the 1960s. This raises issues about what should constitute model calibration and validation, how much data is needed for model calibration, equifinality and uncertainty, probabilities and possibilities, and information and disinformation. A recent study based on a rejectionist philosophy will be described where we have used a distributed modelling approach to examine the potential for hillslope storage bunds as a Natural Flood Management (NFM) strategy to mitigate the effects of future flooding in the 209 km2 River Kent catchment in Cumbria (UK). We will conclude with a discussion of the problem of induction in projecting hydrological futures, and the implications for managing flood risk.