LCHE seminar - Christian P.R. Schmid (CSS Institute for Empirical Health Economics, Lucerne Switzerland)

We investigate whether patients adjust their healthcare utilization in anticipation of
forthcoming price changes. Leveraging a natural experiment, we observe distinct
probabilities of young adults facing future out-of-pocket cost increases. Based on an
instrumental variable approach, we find that individuals expecting higher future prices
augment current outpatient healthcare spending by approximately CHF 39 (or 5%). This
behavior is confined to male patients already utilizing outpatient care, with no
anticipatory spending in the inpatient sector. Our study underscores the significance of
forward-looking behavior in healthcare demand analysis, health insurance design, and
the potential welfare implications of patient cost-sharing.