Water-Earth Systems PhD School Course: Extreme value analysis and precipitation extremes

Course overview

Many natural hazards are caused by extreme precipitation events, such as floods and flash floods in mountainous and urban areas, debris flows, and landslides. To plan mitigation measures that can potentially reduce the expected damages and risks, it is essential to know the probability of occurrence and the magnitude for these events, both for the present climate and for the future climate. This can be accomplished by applying extreme value theory to precipitation analysis, for example by computing frequency curves. In this two-day course, students will be introduced to the concepts of extreme value theory and will learn how to analyse precipitation extremes using both traditional and state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, students will be introduced to the concept of precipitation intensification in relation to climate change and will be introduced to novel methods for quantifying the expected intensification. We aim to provide theoretical and practical capabilities for the use of extreme value theory to estimate changes in precipitation extremes for the present and future under uncertain climate conditions.

Program

Day 1: General introduction to EVA and precipitation analysis

• Introduction to extreme value analysis
• Parameter estimation methods
• Real-world applications: from IDF curves to hazard assessments
• Non-asymptotic approaches: MEV and SMEV

Day 2: Assessing changes to precipitation extreme in light of climate change

• Climate change and precipitation intensification
• The TENAX model
• Introducing climate uncertainties into extreme precipitation analysis
• Toward hydrological risk assessments: the TENAX-CDS model

4 blocks of exercises are included and will be given in between these lectures.