OB Research Seminar - John Antonakis, HEC Lausanne

I will present the updated election model of Jacquart and Antonakis (2015) to predict the U.S. presidential election outcome. I will discuss what we did to improve the model predictions, demonstrate its out of sample performance, and explain why it gave a reasonably accurate prediction for the 2024 election. I will briefly present too other prediction models and discuss some possible reasons why most of them missed the mark. Finally I will also conjecture on strategic mistakes that the Democrats probably made, and why the Harris campaign was doomed from the start.