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Trump’s triumph: Why most pollsters and pundits got it wrong
Description: The election model of John Antonakis and Philippe Jacquart, made public on 9 October 2024, did a great job in predicting the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome.
Published on 26 Nov 2024
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In this videocast, John performs an election post-mortem. He discusses why Trump won and looks at different scenarios to show why the economy matters, but also why charisma plays a large role. He looks at other models, most of which, including that of Allan Lichtman, got it wrong. The fascinating discussion shows the importance of having good data and a well specified model.