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The next US President: Donald Trump or Joe Biden ?
According to the election prediction model developed by John Antonakis, Professor at HEC Lausanne (University of Lausanne) and Philippe Jacquart, Professor at EMLyon, the deciding factors in the critical swing states will be the state of the economy and the charisma of the candidates. For the November 3rd US Presidential election, positive economic indicators should boost the chances of a Trump win.
The statistical model developed by the researchers and professors John Antonakis and Philippe Jacquart, is based on two kinds of data: the country’s economic fundamentals and the political party currently in power (based on the economic model developed by Prof. R. Fair at Yale University), as well as the candidates’ level of charisma. This model has correctly called the 2016 and 2012 elections and, retrospectively, 20 of 24 elections from 1916-2008.
In this video, Prof. Antonakis presents the model, the current situational factors, and what may ultimately determine the results of the election, including:
- Positive economic messages help an incumbent get re-elected.
- An incumbent president running again has an advantage.
- Economic growth data in this quarter will weigh heavily on voting outcomes (current forecasts suggest between 20-30% 3rd Quarter growth).
- Biden's election speech is less charismatic than Trump's speech.
According to Professor John Antonakis at HEC Lausanne, this is not a normal election and the million dollar question is this: to what extent will the pandemic affect the election?
Watch the video to find out more from Prof. Antonakis in 7 minutes!