Donald Trump may still win the knife-edged presidential election according to a prediction model from Professor John Antonakis of HEC Lausanne (UNIL) and his colleague, Professor Philippe Jacquart from Emlyon business school in France.
Their model shows that three key factors could swing US Election, with a possible Trump win: charisma, incumbency and the state of the economy.
Kamala Harris has less charisma than Donald Trump based on an analysis of their acceptance speeches at the respective party conventions. “If Kamala Harris were much more charismatic than Trump, she would have this election in the bag; however, she is not. Thus, this election will be closely contested with Trump having an edge,” says Professor Antonakis.
Then there’s the incumbency advantage: sitting presidents are more likely to win. But in this election there is no incumbent. However, in the unlikely scenario Harris is considered as the incumbent, she could get the advantage and win.
Based on economic growth and inflation, the model indicates that the economy is in good shape, but high inflation has led to uncertainty, with many feeling the pain of rising prices. How this will play out in swing states on election day is unclear.
The professors have extended and revised Professor Ray Fair of Yale University’s econometric election model to include a measure of charisma to predict the likely electoral college winner. A retrospective, out-of-sample analysis using the revised model correctly calls 25 of the last 27 elections – a 92.59% success rate.
Watch the video to get more explanations and the lowdown from the professors
Read the full press release for the analysis of the 3 key factors